of Woolly Bears and “Honkers” and catching young robins……

Fall is in the air......

The breeze is quite strong and there is a hint of snow in the air. Some trees are brilliant shades of orange and red while others have yet to blush and disrobe to barren nakedness. Fall is here, the Woolly Bear caterpillars are finding shelter and the Canadian Geese are starting to flock for their migration south. Their constant honking as they flock brings back memories of my childhood.

I was about 5 years old when I learned about Woolly Bears and “Honkers”. We lived in a huge house (perhaps not huge but remember, I was very little) on Lake Okauchee in the Oconomowoc area.

My father had an answer for just about everything. He knew everything there was to know in the whole world; he even knew how to catch a robin. He told me that if I sprinkled salt on their tail feathers they would not fly away and I could catch them.

Of course, my father would never tell me a lie – I still believe in Santa Clause and the Easter Bunny.

One day in early summer I saw a young robin under one of the pine trees. Quick as a flash I ran into the house and got the salt shaker off the kitchen stove. I followed that young robin around the yard until I cornered him near the house where I was able to get close enough to sprinkle the salt on his tale. That was all it took for the terrified young bird to make his escape. Hopping away and flying a few feet at a time, he was finally able to find safety in the neighbor’s yard.

When Dad got home from work that afternoon he was greeted by a sobbing young 5 year old who had his entire belief system shattered by a young robin.

Dad quickly took care of everything. He sat me on his lap and explained that it takes a lot of salt. I admitted that I was barely able to sprinkle the salt before the bird outdistanced me. He told me that I probably just did not get enough salt on the bird’s tail. With that, my belief system was restored.

Gee…. isn’t it amazing how fathers can fix things like that with a hug and a kind word?

But I digress….

I was always curious why Canada Geese honked when they were in flight. Dad explained it as only a father could. He told me that flying is hard work for the geese. He explained that when I ran around the yard chasing my brother I would start breathing hard. To get enough air, I would breathe through my mouth rather than my nose. It’s the same with geese. They breathe through their mouths to get enough air. When they are in flight with their mouths wide open, they often get too much air. This fills them up like a balloon and when they get too full of air, they have to burp. Dad told me that a goose burp sounded much different than when I burped. That’s what we would hear when the geese flew over the house. The Geese were burping……. This made complete sense to a 5 year old.

Dad must have had a good chuckle at that one. He did not, however, count on taken so seriously. That very day my brother and I started practicing to see who could fabricate a high pitched burp that would sound like a goose.

Mom was the one who taught us about woolly bears and how they predict the severity of the coming winter. The wider the orange stripe in the middle, the milder the winter. Mom considered The Farmer’s Almanac to be the final authority on things like that.

So this morning I found a Woolly Bear with a very wide band. It is going to be a mild winter. The geese are burping as they fly over the house…… All is well……….

This doomsday business just gets old after a while, you know?

Bing: Enough of the apocalypse already!
This doomsday business just gets old after a while, you know?

By Stanley Bing, columnist
October 24, 2008

(Fortune Magazine) -- And the land was overrun by prophets of doom, and with them came four horses, and on those horses were four riders, and the names of those riders were Fear and Anger and Gloom and Panic.

And these gloomy, mostly pudgy and balding prophets shouted from the rooftops, predicting the end of happiness, the end of the dollar, the onset of starvation, the collapse of markets globally, and the hegemony of China. And those who prophesied the worst got the most airtime.

And darkness reigned upon the waters, and a cloud of verbose unknowing spread across the globe.

And the people gathered into groups, each one certain of its own path. Those who followed the horseman of Fear stuffed their possessions into coffee cans and mattresses and repaired to their basements to cringe. Those who followed Anger went into the streets with pitchforks and blogs. Those who followed the horse of Gloom feasted on cable news, gobbling down reports on the poor souls who followed the horse of Panic, who spent their time dining on their own entrails.

And it was the morning and the evening of the first day of the end of the world.

One hundred days made their way across the Möbius strip of time. And the next morning, a lone bird was heard a-tweeting. A few among the fearful, angry, gloomy, panicky horde began to stir and awake as if from a dream. There were those with short attention spans, who simply needed a new tune to which they might dance. There were the loyal, who had succumbed to the dark charms of the abyss but longed to return to the system they loved. There were the rational, who saw logic in the notion that even the clock that runs the universe runs in cycles. There were the irrational, who believed that after times of trial, things always get better.

And these people came together, gradually, until they made a new host.

And its members spoke up about things they had noticed even during the blackest moments in the pit.

They saw that the powers that protected their checking and savings accounts had not fallen into the void, and that their deposits were now insured for up to $250,000, which even these days is not chicken feed. And they saw that it was good.

And they saw that certain stocks seemed to have hit a floor and were now trading at very attractive multiples.

And they perceived that not every single financial entity had failed.
And their hearts leapt as they saw that while many people had been cast down utterly, others were still walking around and drawing breath, and that these folk continued to shop, purchase cars and homes - sometimes for quite attractive prices - and attend very expensive colleges.

And before them was a choice: to live with those who waited for the end in terror, or to strike out for the future alongside those who were brave enough, or simply too uninformed, to have relinquished all hope.

And they chose life. And it was a lot better than the alternative.

And these hardy souls went out among the miserable shopkeepers with whatever coins they could spare and spread them around the marketplace. They sowed. They reaped. They responded to advertising. And when they beheld the prophets of doom dispensing negative messages based on dank scenarios of their own creation and heavy doses of useless hindsight, they raised their voices against them, saying, "Enough already! If you knew so much, why did you not predict this disaster or do anything to stop it? Begone!" Then they went out for dinner at a moderately priced restaurant. Paid in cash too.

And it was the evening and the morning of the first day of the rest of our lives. May it come soon

Financial update from Bob Martin - Metro Mortgage

Here is the latest from "The Guru" (Mr. Barry Habib).....
Bob

Guru Report:
The Federal Reserve led a global coordinated emergency interest rate cut this morning that included the European Central Bank, Canada, UK, Switzerland and Sweden. The Federal Funds Rate was lowered by 50bp to 1.5%, while the discount rate was also cut by 50bp to 1.75%. The joint effort was to ease the economic effects of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
The coordinated effort helped keep the currency markets in balance - this gave our Fed the green light to cut, without the inflationary concerns from a weaker Dollar. Additionally, the strong Dollar is keeping oil prices in check...much different from the past string of isolated US cuts that led to a much weaker Dollar and skyrocketting oil. And the European Central Bank, which had turned its back on rate cuts (they actually hiked not too long ago) because of its single mandate of fighting inflation, gains cover in making the move to avert a global collapse. Look for more cuts ahead, especially from the ECB and the Bank of England, which both have lots of room to slash rates.
On Monday we speculated that a coordinated global rate cut, although never done before, may be possible.
Here's what we wrote to you on Monday -
Typically, and contrary to the media and general public's understanding, Fed Rate cuts have an adverse effect on mortgage rates. However, with the world-wide financial crisis, it would be nice to see a coordinated effort by our Fed, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank to simultaneously cut rates. This would help the currency markets remain stable. In the past, when our Fed has cut rates alone, our Dollar weakens, which is inflationary, and that is a big factor in the negative movement for Mortgage Bonds. But a coordinated effort would keep the Dollar, which has already made a major comeback against the Euro, near unchanged levels. This means that Bonds just might like a Fed cut, if it's done in tandem with other world central banks. By the way - Stocks would likely move much higher following a move like this. We are just speculating on this, but given the global financial situation, the stage is now set for a possible coordinated action. Currently, there is an 84% chance that the Fed Funds Rate will be lowered by 50bp at the upcoming October 29th Fed meeting.
(note: this was written earlier today, so while the Guru was right on the coordinated effort, he was way off the mark as to the markets responses. Currently the stock market is down almost 200 points and the mortgage backed securities are down 84 basis points, which is why the rates are getting hammered)
Stocks are slightly lower, but this is an enormous improvement from what the Stock futures were showing in overnight trading and prior to the Fed announcement, as the Dow was set to open about 500 points lower. We think Stocks may in fact gain upward momentum and move higher from these levels. Our "old reliable" indicator, the VIX, tells us that we may be up for higher stock prices ahead.
Additionally, we discussed that a Fed Cut that was in tamdem with the ECB and BOE would be a positive for Mortgage Bonds. Usually Mortgage Bonds react negatively to a Fed cut because of the inflation and Dollar weakness that comes with a cut. But as mentioned, this coordinated move keeps currencies, oil and inflation in check.
But volatility will likely remain for both Stocks and Bonds. Mortgage bond prices remain in a sideways to higher trend riding along the 25-day Moving Average. We will float, but be ready to lock should sentiment change.